40% Growth Then, 5% Growth Now — What We Must Learn Anew

Opening & Welcome

Good evening, everyone, and welcome to our first session of Multiplying by Mission.

My name is Jason Conrad. I live here in South Carolina with my wife Jen and our family. By profession, I serve as a district leader with CVS Health, overseeing nearly twenty stores and hundreds of employees. My background is in healthcare and leadership — I hold both a Doctor of Pharmacy (PharmD) and a Master of Business Administration (MBA) — and I’ve spent many years leading in that field.

But alongside that, my deepest calling is teaching God’s Word and the history of His church. I also hold a Bachelor’s degree in Biblical Studies and a Master of Divinity, with a focus on the New Testament, early Christian history, and how the first believers lived out their faith in the Roman Empire.

Back in 2000, I moved to South Carolina to help start Christ Central Institute. From the very beginning, I’ve believed in the vision of equipping leaders and serving communities through Christ Central. I’ve been teaching for years in the church, and I’ve seen again and again how knowing our history strengthens our faith.

This series has a big title: Multiplying by Mission — 40% Growth Then, 5% Growth Now — What We Must Learn Anew.

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The State of Christianity in the World Today

Christianity is still the largest global religion, but the landscape is shifting. According to Pew Research Center (The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2017–2021 updates):

Metric	Christianity	Islam	Unaffiliated
2020 Total Share	28.8%	25.6%	24.2%
2010–2020 Growth	+5.7%	+20.7%	+11.4%
Primary Growth Areas	Africa, Asia	Africa, Asia, MENA	North America, Europe, East Asia

Now compare that with the first three centuries of the church. Sociologist Rodney Stark, in his book The Rise of Christianity (HarperCollins, 1996), famously calculated Christianity’s growth at about 40% per decade. Stark wasn’t writing as a theologian but as a sociologist, showing how a small sect could realistically have expanded to millions within three centuries. His analysis demonstrates that Christianity’s explosive rise is historically plausible, not legendary.

• AD 40: ~1,000 Christians
• AD 100: ~7,000–10,000
• AD 150: ~40,000
• AD 200: ~200,000
• AD 250: ~1,000,000
• AD 300: ~6,000,000
• AD 350: ~30,000,000 (roughly half the empire)

If today’s church grew at that same rate, 2.3 billion Christians would become nearly the entire global population by AD 2070.

This is why our series is called Multiplying by Mission. The first Christians multiplied by 40% a decade. Today, we grow at 5%. The question before us is: what did they know that we must learn anew?

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What Would It Take to Grow Like That Again?

So what would it take for us to recover that kind of momentum? Here’s one way to think about it:

Source	Target % per Decade	How to Get There
Retention of Christians	+10%	Keep 75–80% of all who enter the church — whether raised Christian or converted as adults — through discipleship, mentoring, apologetics, and community
Evangelism of Unaffiliated	+15%	Reconnect ~20% of “nones” each decade through service, digital outreach, hospitality, and apologetics
Combined Total	25% per decade	Significant growth, but still below the early church’s ~40% per decade

Now, you might be wondering: is 75–80% retention even possible? Today in America, only about half of kids raised Christian stay Christian as adults — and many adults who convert later in life also drift away. Retention is not just about keeping youth; it’s about keeping everyone who enters the church.

In the early church, retention had to be much higher across the board. Why? Because persecution weeded out nominal believers, catechesis trained converts before baptism, and Christian community bound people together in ways far stronger than what we often see today.

And this doesn’t even include conversions from other religions like Islam or Hinduism, or the natural increase from Christian birth rates. When you factor those in, the growth potential could push even higher.

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The 18-Year-Old in the Classroom

Picture an 18-year-old. She’s grown up in church her whole life. She’s been told the Bible is true, and she’s never really faced serious doubt.

She graduates high school and heads to university. She signs up for “Introduction to the New Testament” — thinking it’ll be an easy A.

What she doesn’t realize is that the professor is one of the most famous Bible scholars in the world today. He’s written or edited more than 30 books, several bestsellers. He’s the author of the textbook used in universities across the country. He used to be a devout evangelical Christian — but he lost his faith. In his own words: “I no longer go to church, no longer believe, no longer consider myself a Christian.”

Now picture her in a lecture hall with 400+ students. Many grew up in church. Many think this will reinforce what they already know.

Instead, the professor walks in with humor, confidence, and command of the text — and begins by dismantling assumptions: contradictions, manuscript problems, alleged forged letters, the problem of suffering, and arguments against miracles.

By the end of the semester, she isn’t angry. She isn’t hostile. She’s just unsure. On a survey, she checks “unaffiliated.”

That’s the world we live in. Christianity is growing slowly in much of the West, and defections are common. This is why this class matters.

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The Seven Tactics of Skeptical Professors

1. The Apollonius of Tyana Comparison

“I sometimes begin my undergraduate classes in New Testament studies by telling my students that I am going to describe a person to them, and they have to tell me who it is. I then talk about a man who lived some time ago, who was said to have been miraculously born, who taught his followers, did miracles to confirm that he was a son of God, convinced many people that he was divine, and then at the end of his life ascended to heaven. When I ask them who this sounds like, they invariably say Jesus. But the person I’m describing is Apollonius of Tyana.”
— Bart D. Ehrman, Did Jesus Exist? (2012), p. 211

2. Textual Variants in the New Testament

“Not only do we not have the originals, we don’t have the first copies of the originals… What we have are copies made later — much later… And these copies all differ from one another, in many thousands of places… there are more variations among our manuscripts than there are words in the New Testament.”
— Bart D. Ehrman, Misquoting Jesus (2005), pp. 10–11

3. Contradictions in the Gospels

“In the Gospel of Mark, Jesus says, ‘Whoever is not against us is for us’ (9:40). In Matthew he says, ‘Whoever is not with me is against me’ (12:30). Did Jesus say both things? Could he really mean both? Isn’t there a contradiction here?”
— Bart D. Ehrman, Jesus Interrupted (2009), p. 41

“In Mark’s account, Jairus comes to Jesus and tells him that his daughter is near death… In Matthew’s version… Jairus comes to Jesus and tells him that his daughter has already died. Which is it?”
— Jesus Interrupted, pp. 39–40

4. Authorship and Pseudonymity

“Of the thirteen letters that go under Paul’s name in the New Testament… Six of them are widely regarded as pseudonymous… That leaves seven letters that virtually all scholars agree Paul actually wrote.”
— Bart D. Ehrman, Forged (2011), p. 106

5. The Problem of Suffering

“For me the problem of suffering is the reason I lost my faith… For many people who inhabit this planet, life is a cesspool of misery and suffering. I came to a point where I simply could not believe there is a good and kindly disposed Ruler who is in charge of it. That is why I left the faith.”
— Bart D. Ehrman, God’s Problem (2008), p. 2

6. The Limits of History and Miracles

David Hume, writing in 1748, is often quoted as if he “disproved” miracles. In his Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding (Section 10), he wrote:

“A wise man… proportions his belief to the evidence. A miracle… is a violation of the laws of nature… and the proof against a miracle… is as strong as any argument from experience can be.”

Bart Ehrman echoes the same line:

“Historians, by the very nature of their craft, cannot show whether miracles happened… History can only establish what probably happened in the past. And miracles, by definition, are the least probable events.”
— Bart D. Ehrman, How Jesus Became God (2014), p. 229

But Hume also admitted:

“No testimony is sufficient to establish a miracle, unless the testimony be of such a kind, that its falsehood would be more miraculous than the fact which it endeavors to establish.”

So even Hume acknowledged that miracles are not impossible — if the evidence is strong enough.

7. Student Reactions

“Most of my students have never heard this before… They discover that we don’t have the original copies of any of the biblical books but only copies made centuries later, all of which have been altered.”
— Bart D. Ehrman, Misquoting Jesus (2005), p. 10

“I came into this class a Christian; I don’t know if I can still call myself that.”
— Misquoting Jesus, p. 11

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Discussion and Reflection

• Which of these seven tactics strikes you the hardest?
• Why do you think so many 18-year-olds leave their first semester doubting their faith?

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The Seven Undisputed Letters of Paul

Now here’s where things get really important. We’ve just seen how skeptical professors use tactics to shake students. But this is where atheists and Christians agree.

For more than 150 years, across the entire scholarly spectrum, critics and believers alike have affirmed that at least seven letters of Paul are authentic. These are not in dispute. They are the bedrock of New Testament studies.

These seven letters are:

• Galatians
• 1 Thessalonians
• 1 Corinthians
• 2 Corinthians
• Romans
• Philippians
• Philemon

Bart Ehrman writes:

“There is no doubt that Paul wrote Galatians, Romans, 1 and 2 Corinthians, 1 Thessalonians, Philippians, and Philemon.”
(Forged, 2011, p. 112)

Richard Carrier agrees:

“The seven letters generally agreed upon as authentic… are sufficient to reconstruct the basic outline of Paul’s theology and missionary activity.”
(On the Historicity of Jesus, 2014, p. 510)

And this consensus is not new. In the mid-1800s, the German scholar Ferdinand Christian Baur, founder of the Tübingen School of criticism, argued that only four Pauline letters were authentic: Galatians, 1 & 2 Corinthians, and Romans. Even Baur, one of the most radical critics of his time, accepted those. Over time, scholarship expanded that number to seven. For more than 150 years now, across skeptical and believing scholarship alike, the consensus has held firm at these seven letters.

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The Skeptic Consensus of Early Christian Literature

• AD 30 — Crucifixion of Jesus
• AD 31–33 (31–35 by skeptical allowance) — Paul’s conversion and the earliest Christian creeds (1 Cor 15; Phil 2)
• AD 48–50 — Galatians
• AD 50–51 — 1 Thessalonians
• AD 53–54 — 1 & 2 Corinthians
• AD 56–57 — Romans
• AD 60–61 — Philippians, Philemon
• AD 70 — Gospel of Mark
• AD 80 — Matthew, Luke
• AD 90 — Acts
• AD 90–95 — John
• AD 95–100 — Revelation, 1–3 John, 1 Clement, Didache
• AD 70–110 — All the rest of the New Testament writings

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What We Gain from the Seven Letters

1. Resurrection proclaimed almost immediately
“For what I received I passed on to you as of first importance: that Christ died for our sins according to the Scriptures, that he was buried, that he was raised on the third day according to the Scriptures, and that he appeared to Cephas, and then to the Twelve. After that, he appeared to more than five hundred… Then he appeared to James, then to all the apostles, and last of all he appeared to me also.”
— 1 Corinthians 15:3–7

2. Paul’s conversion shockingly early
“…But when God… was pleased to reveal his Son in me so that I might preach him among the Gentiles, my immediate response was not to consult any human being. I did not go up to Jerusalem to see those who were apostles before I was, but I went into Arabia. Later I returned to Damascus. Then after three years, I went up to Jerusalem to get acquainted with Cephas…”
— Galatians 1:15–18

“Then after fourteen years, I went up again to Jerusalem, this time with Barnabas. I took Titus along also.”
— Galatians 2:1

Together, these two passages account for 17 years after Paul’s conversion. If Galatians was written by AD 48–50, Paul’s conversion falls between AD 31–33 — skeptics stretch to AD 35 at the latest.

3. Persecution unbroken since AD 30

Persecution runs as an unbroken line from the cross itself, through Paul’s own life before and after conversion, and into the churches he planted.

• Jesus was crucified under Pontius Pilate (the Roman state itself initiating persecution, AD 30).
• Paul confesses himself a persecutor:
  “For you have heard of my previous way of life in Judaism, how intensely I persecuted the church of God and tried to destroy it.” — Galatians 1:13
  “For I am the least of the apostles and do not even deserve to be called an apostle, because I persecuted the church of God.” — 1 Corinthians 15:9
  “…as to zeal, persecuting the church; as to righteousness under the law, faultless.” — Philippians 3:6
• Persecution continued after Paul’s conversion:
  “You became imitators of God’s churches in Judea, which are in Christ Jesus: You suffered from your own people the same things those churches suffered from the Jews, who killed the Lord Jesus and the prophets and also drove us out.” — 1 Thessalonians 2:14–15

This shows that from AD 30 onward, persecution was a constant reality — first in Jesus’ death, then in Paul’s own role as persecutor, and then in the sufferings of the churches themselves.

4. Paul quoting Jesus traditions already circulating

Paul’s letters contain direct echoes of Jesus’ words — traditions that match the Gospels, even though they were written earlier:

• The Lord’s Supper
  “For I received from the Lord what I also passed on to you: The Lord Jesus, on the night he was betrayed, took bread, and when he had given thanks, he broke it and said, ‘This is my body, which is for you; do this in remembrance of me.’ In the same way, after supper he took the cup, saying, ‘This cup is the new covenant in my blood; do this, whenever you drink it, in remembrance of me.’”
  — 1 Corinthians 11:23–25
  (Matches Matthew 26:26–28; Mark 14:22–24; Luke 22:19–20)
• On Divorce
  “To the married I give this command (not I, but the Lord): A wife must not separate from her husband. But if she does, she must remain unmarried or else be reconciled to her husband. And a husband must not divorce his wife.”
  — 1 Corinthians 7:10–11
  (Matches Mark 10:11–12; Luke 16:18)
• On Ministry Support
  “In the same way, the Lord has commanded that those who preach the gospel should receive their living from the gospel.”
  — 1 Corinthians 9:14
  (Matches Luke 10:7: “The worker deserves his wages.”)

These passages show that Jesus’ words were already circulating and authoritative decades before the Gospels were written.

5. Jesus worshiped as divine

The Christ Hymn of Philippians 2:6–11 is structured as a chiasm — a mirror-like pattern where the descent of Christ is matched by his exaltation:

Chiastic Structure (Philippians 2:6–11):

• A – Divine Lord
  “Being in the form of God… equality with God”
• B – Loss of all recognition
  “Did not consider equality with God something to hold tightly… emptied himself”
• C – Common name
  “Taking the form of a servant… born in human likeness”
• D – Obedient to death
  “He humbled himself… even death on a cross”
• C′ – Highest name
  “God gave him the name that is above every name”
• B′ – Universal recognition
  “Every knee will bow… every tongue confess”
• A′ – Divine Lord
  “Jesus Christ is Lord, to the glory of God the Father”

This hymn shows that within the very first generation, Christians were already worshiping Jesus as divine Lord. The wording echoes Isaiah 45, where every knee bows to Yahweh — now applied to Jesus.

6. Transformed lives
“Do not be deceived: Neither the sexually immoral nor idolaters nor adulterers nor men who have sex with men nor thieves nor the greedy nor drunkards nor slanderers nor swindlers will inherit the kingdom of God. And that is what some of you were. But you were washed, you were sanctified, you were justified in the name of the Lord Jesus Christ and by the Spirit of our God.”
— 1 Corinthians 6:9–11

7. Missionary movement
“From Jerusalem and all the way around to Illyricum, I have fully proclaimed the gospel of Christ… It has always been my ambition to preach the gospel where Christ was not known, so that I would not be building on someone else’s foundation… But now that there is no more place for me to work in these regions… I plan to do so when I go to Spain.”
— Romans 15:19–24

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Conclusion

From the seven undisputed letters — writings atheists and Christians alike affirm — we know:

• Jesus was crucified.
• The resurrection was proclaimed immediately.
• Paul converted within just a few years.
• Persecution has been unbroken since AD 30.
• Jesus was worshiped as divine.
• Eyewitnesses were consulted.
• Lives were transformed.
• The mission was global from the start.

Even on skeptical terms, the core of Christianity stands firm.

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Reinforcement: Blog & Podcast

For further study, students are encouraged to listen to and read supplemental content on Jason’s Living the Bible podcast and blog:

• Podcast: When Atheists and Christians Agree: The 7 Undisputed Letters of Paul (May 26, 2025).
• Podcast: Christianity Before Paul: The Traditions He Inherited (May 28, 2025).
• Blog Post: Christianity’s Unstoppable Growth in the First 300 Years.

These reinforce today’s themes: the growth of Christianity, the consensus on Paul’s letters, and the firm historical core of the faith even on skeptical terms.